Carroll County, Illinois: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carroll County, Illinois has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.0 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with drought, landslides and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $11 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4461-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 19 September 2019). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Illinois All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 15,692 Buildings worth $5.7 billion Area 472 sq mi Risk rank in Illinois 70 of 102 FIPS 17015
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | $1.1 million | about 12 a year | 294 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76.9 | $10,006 | about once every 6.3 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | $985,144 | about 5.8 a year | 223 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 73.1 | $578,436 | about 3.7 a year | 141 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 56.6 | $1.1 million | about 6.3 a year | 120 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 55.9 | $1.4 million | about once every 2.4 years | 15 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 46.5 | $5.3 million | about 1.4 a year | 38 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 45.1 | $60,371 | about once every 1.4 years | 49 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 36.0 | $167,583 | about 5.1 a year | 76 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 31.6 | $80,183 | about once every 990 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 30.4 | $27,060 | about 17 a year | 314 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18.0 | $54,535 | about 41 a year | 56,636 strikes |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 13.1 | $3,904 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 12.1 | $2,417 | about once every 174 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 14
Most common: Flood 7, Snowstorm 3, Severe Storm 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Tornado |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm |
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Snowstorm, Hurricane, Flood |
| 2010s | 4 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carroll County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3230-IL): 102 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (2011, DR-1960-IL): 65 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1973, DR-373-IL): 52 Illinois counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Illinois also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 21
| Tornadoes touching the county | 21 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (8) |
| Deadliest | 24 Jan 1967, F3, 7.4 mi path, 0 killed, 12 injured |
| Longest path | 15 Jul 2024, EF1, 29.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 15 Jul 2024, EF1, 29.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 13 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carroll County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll County (this page) | — | Very Low | 39.0 | Drought |
| Whiteside County | 35 km | Relatively Low | 65.8 | Drought |
| Stephenson County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 73.9 | Hail |
| Jo Daviess County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 51.3 | Landslide |
| Ogle County | 51 km | Relatively Low | 71.1 | Hail |
| Clinton County, IA | 53 km | Relatively Low | 64.8 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Illinois, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 55.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 69.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.17 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $11 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carroll County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Illinois · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Illinois
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carroll County
What natural disasters is Carroll County, Illinois most at risk from?
Carroll County, Illinois has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.0 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with drought, landslides and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $11 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carroll County had?
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4461-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 19 September 2019). Another 2 Illinois declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carroll County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 24 Jan 1967, F3, 7.4 mi path, 0 killed, 12 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.