Jay County, Indiana: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Jay County, Indiana has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 22.9 out of 100, higher than about 22% of US counties, with tornadoes, earthquakes and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.6 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Jay County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3651-IN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 15 August 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Jay County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 20,478 Buildings worth $5.5 billion Area 388 sq mi Risk rank in Indiana 74 of 92 FIPS 18075
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 61.7 | $1.8 million | about once every 3.6 years | 14 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 57.0 | $378,835 | about once every 613 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 53.1 | $582,410 | about 4.2 a year | 162 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 44.8 | $64,404 | about once every 1.4 years | 49 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 40.9 | $178,377 | about 4 a year | 152 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 38.5 | $26,205 | about once every 87 years | 4 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 36.8 | $4.2 million | about once every 1.9 years | 15 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 25.5 | $323,519 | about 3.7 a year | 70 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 23.5 | $161 | about once every 16 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18.1 | $59,050 | about 43 a year | 61,634 strikes |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 17.3 | $14,274 | about 1 a year | 191 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 16.6 | $42,175 | about 5.1 a year | 80 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 5.2 | $1,618 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 14
Most common: Severe Storm 5, Snowstorm 4, Flood 3, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 1990s | 3 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 8 | Severe Storm ×5, Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 2 | Flood, Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Jay County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3641-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3238-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Flooding (2005, DR-1573-IN): 87 Indiana counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Indiana also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 16
| Tornadoes touching the county | 16 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (5) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1974, F4, 18 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Apr 1974, F4, 18 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured |
| Most recent | 22 Sep 2024, unrated, 0.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 14 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Jay County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay County (this page) | — | Very Low | 22.9 | Tornado |
| Blackford County | 27 km | Very Low | 9.0 | Tornado |
| Randolph County | 31 km | Very Low | 31.5 | Tornado |
| Mercer County, OH | 34 km | Very Low | 31.6 | Earthquake |
| Adams County | 35 km | Relatively Low | 52.1 | Strong wind |
| Wells County | 37 km | Very Low | 22.8 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Indiana, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 43.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 55.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.08 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $7.6 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Jay County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Indiana · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Jay County
What natural disasters is Jay County, Indiana most at risk from?
Jay County, Indiana has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 22.9 out of 100, higher than about 22% of US counties, with tornadoes, earthquakes and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.6 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Jay County had?
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Jay County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3651-IN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 15 August 2026). Another 3 Indiana declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Jay County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Jay County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1974, F4, 18 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.