Bay County, Michigan: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bay County, Michigan has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.2 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with winter storms, strong winds and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $38 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Bay County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4326-MI (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 2 August 2017). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Bay County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 103,848 Buildings worth $22 billion Area 637 sq mi Risk rank in Michigan 14 of 83 FIPS 26017
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 94.7 | $626,339 | about 11 a year | 206 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 94.4 | $2.8 million | about 3.2 a year | 92 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 89.9 | $6.9 million | about 2.9 a year | 55 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 84.0 | $4.9 million | about once every 4.9 years | 9 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | $1.1 million | about 2 a year | 81 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | $21 million | about once every 1.4 years | 20 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 62.6 | $148,175 | about once every 1.4 years | 36 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 57.0 | $297,328 | about 31 a year | 100,114 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 53.6 | $434,892 | about 2.2 a year | 36 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 45.8 | $51,464 | about once every 71 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 42.1 | $169,327 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 42.1 | $34,806 | about once every 53 years | 6 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.9 | $60 | about once every 20 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 14.7 | $4,877 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 12
Most common: Severe Storm 4, Flood 4, Snowstorm 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 2 | Hurricane, Snowstorm |
| 2010s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Bay County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3225-MI): 83 Michigan counties designated.
- Blizzards & Snowstorms (1978, EM-3057-MI): 83 Michigan counties designated.
- Snow (2001, EM-3160-MI): 39 Michigan counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Michigan also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 15
| Tornadoes touching the county | 15 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (6) |
| Deadliest | 11 Apr 1965, F2, 9.9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 12 Jun 1984, F3, 48 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 8 Jul 2016, EF0, 2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 4 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Bay County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 78.2 | Winter weather |
| Midland County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 71.9 | Strong wind |
| Arenac County | 41 km | Very Low | 20.3 | Winter weather |
| Saginaw County | 42 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | Winter weather |
| Gladwin County | 45 km | Very Low | 40.3 | Winter weather |
| Tuscola County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 73.1 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Michigan, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 44.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 98.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.06 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $38 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bay County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Michigan · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bay County
What natural disasters is Bay County, Michigan most at risk from?
Bay County, Michigan has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.2 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with winter storms, strong winds and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $38 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bay County had?
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Bay County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4326-MI (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 2 August 2017). Another 3 Michigan declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bay County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Bay County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Apr 1965, F2, 9.9 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.