Berrien County, Michigan: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Berrien County, Michigan has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 81.7 out of 100, higher than about 81% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $45 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Berrien County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3225-MI (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 7 September 2005). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 31 tornadoes touching Berrien County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 154,234 Buildings worth $38 billion Area 1,597 sq mi Risk rank in Michigan 12 of 83 FIPS 26021
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.0 | $3.0 million | about 4.2 a year | 61 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 89.7 | $1.7 million | about 2.3 a year | 91 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.9 | $6.3 million | about 2.3 a year | 40 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.0 | $27 million | about once every 1.4 years | 20 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | $4.7 million | about once every 1.5 years | 20 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 75.7 | $169,218 | about 23 a year | 415 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 71.9 | $897,000 | about once every 990 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 65.1 | $723,323 | about 3.5 a year | 47 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 61.2 | $344,689 | about 38 a year | 207,503 strikes |
| Landslide | Very Low | 61.2 | $2,868 | about once every 6.1 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 47.9 | $76,839 | about 1.2 a year | 30 |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 38.8 | $13,278 | about once every 69 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 31.7 | $16,001 | about once every 94 years | 2 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 23.5 | $9,530 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 10
Most common: Flood 5, Snowstorm 3, Hurricane 1, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×3, Snowstorm |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane, Severe Storm, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Berrien County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3225-MI): 83 Michigan counties designated.
- Blizzards & Snowstorms (1978, EM-3057-MI): 83 Michigan counties designated.
- Snow (2001, EM-3160-MI): 39 Michigan counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Michigan also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 31
| Tornadoes touching the county | 31 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×12 |
| Peak month | June (13) |
| Deadliest | 4 Mar 1976, F2, 44.8 mi path, 0 killed, 9 injured |
| Longest path | 4 Mar 1976, F2, 44.8 mi path, 0 killed, 9 injured |
| Most recent | 28 Feb 2017, EF1, 0.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 15 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Berrien County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berrien County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 81.7 | Strong wind |
| Cass County | 35 km | Relatively Low | 47.7 | Strong wind |
| St. Joseph County, IN | 39 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | Cold wave |
| Van Buren County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 60.5 | Hail |
| LaPorte County, IN | 53 km | Relatively Low | 78.9 | Cold wave |
| Elkhart County, IN | 61 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Michigan, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 44.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 98.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.06 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $45 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Berrien County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Michigan · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Michigan
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Berrien County
What natural disasters is Berrien County, Michigan most at risk from?
Berrien County, Michigan has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 81.7 out of 100, higher than about 81% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $45 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Berrien County had?
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Berrien County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3225-MI (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 7 September 2005). Another 3 Michigan declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Berrien County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 31 tornadoes touching Berrien County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 4 Mar 1976, F2, 44.8 mi path, 0 killed, 9 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.