Itasca County, Minnesota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Itasca County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 76.7 out of 100, higher than about 76% of US counties, with cold waves, strong winds and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Itasca County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4797-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 28 June 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Itasca County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Minnesota All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 45,006 Buildings worth $12 billion Area 2,958 sq mi Risk rank in Minnesota 11 of 87 FIPS 27061
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 96.7 | $13 million | about 17 a year | 330 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 88.0 | $1.6 million | about once a year | 39 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 80.1 | $13,350 | about once every 1.4 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.7 | $1.3 million | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 77.3 | $552,364 | about 28 a year | 119,864 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 75.4 | $14 million | about once every 2.5 years | 11 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 60.3 | $78,515 | about 18 a year | 349 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 53.8 | $265,513 | about 1.5 a year | 56 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44.8 | $29,154 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 39.8 | $55,196 | about 12 a year | 434 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.1 | $384,412 | about once every 2.7 years | 10 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 19.6 | $13,621 | about once every 16 years | 4 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3.0 | $2,470 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Severe Storm 6, Flood 5, Hurricane 1, Drought 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 4 | Flood ×2, Drought, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 2 | Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 2 | Flood, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Itasca County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3242-MN): 87 Minnesota counties designated.
- Drought (1976, EM-3013-MN): 78 Minnesota counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2024, DR-4797-MN): 32 Minnesota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Minnesota also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 13
| Tornadoes touching the county | 13 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 19 Jun 2016, EF1, 8.1 mi path |
| Most recent | 30 May 2022, EF0, 1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Itasca County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itasca County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 76.7 | Cold wave |
| Cass County | 81 km | Relatively Low | 53.5 | Cold wave |
| Koochiching County | 83 km | Very Low | 31.5 | Cold wave |
| St. Louis County | 88 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | Cold wave |
| Aitkin County | 102 km | Relatively Low | 56.6 | Cold wave |
| Hubbard County | 107 km | Very Low | 35.2 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Minnesota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 63.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 91.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.22 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $31 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Itasca County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Minnesota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Itasca County
What natural disasters is Itasca County, Minnesota most at risk from?
Itasca County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 76.7 out of 100, higher than about 76% of US counties, with cold waves, strong winds and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Itasca County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Itasca County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4797-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 28 June 2024). Another 9 Minnesota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Itasca County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Itasca County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.