St. Louis County, Minnesota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
St. Louis County, Minnesota has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.6 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with cold waves, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $112 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included St. Louis County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5583-MN (Munger Shaw Fire, declared 14 May 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 40 tornadoes touching St. Louis County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 200,067 Buildings worth $58 billion Area 6,930 sq mi Risk rank in Minnesota 3 of 87 FIPS 27137
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Very High | 99.4 | $51 million | about 15 a year | 280 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 98.0 | $1.4 million | about 18 a year | 329 |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.6 | $2.9 million | about 27 a year | 325,694 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.8 | $50 million | about 1.5 a year | 41 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | $2.4 million | about once every 3.0 years | 7.2 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 84.0 | $1.2 million | about once every 1.1 years | 35 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.7 | $511,971 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 71.3 | $1.1 million | about once every 1.4 years | 27 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 64.7 | $2.2 million | about once every 2.5 years | 25 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 63.6 | $168,098 | about once every 6.4 years | 11 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57.4 | $2,416 | about 2.4 a year | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 42.2 | $88,863 | about 13 a year | 476 |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 35.0 | $8,678 | about once every 78 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3.2 | $3,370 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 15
Most common: Flood 9, Severe Storm 3, Fire 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Drought |
| 1990s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood |
| 2000s | 2 | Hurricane, Flood |
| 2010s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 4 | Flood ×3, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included St. Louis County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3242-MN): 87 Minnesota counties designated.
- Drought (1976, EM-3013-MN): 78 Minnesota counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (2001, DR-1370-MN): 66 Minnesota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Minnesota also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 40
| Tornadoes touching the county | 40 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×5 |
| Peak month | August (14) |
| Deadliest | 6 Aug 1969, F3, 17.2 mi path, 2 killed, 3 injured |
| Longest path | 25 Aug 1974, F1, 34.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 19 Sep 2024, EF1, 5.9 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 37 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 17 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How St. Louis County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | Cold wave |
| Lake County | 77 km | Very Low | 33.9 | Strong wind |
| Itasca County | 88 km | Relatively Low | 76.7 | Cold wave |
| Carlton County | 114 km | Relatively Low | 70.1 | Cold wave |
| Koochiching County | 121 km | Very Low | 31.5 | Cold wave |
| Aitkin County | 132 km | Relatively Low | 56.6 | Cold wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Minnesota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 32.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 98.3 |
| Community risk factor | 0.98 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $112 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for St. Louis County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Minnesota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Minnesota
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about St. Louis County
What natural disasters is St. Louis County, Minnesota most at risk from?
St. Louis County, Minnesota has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.6 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with cold waves, winter storms and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $112 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has St. Louis County had?
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included St. Louis County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5583-MN (Munger Shaw Fire, declared 14 May 2025). Another 9 Minnesota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit St. Louis County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 40 tornadoes touching St. Louis County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 Aug 1969, F3, 17.2 mi path, 2 killed, 3 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.