Bronx County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bronx County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.3 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with heat waves, cold waves and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $212 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Bronx County since 1971, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 1 tornado touching Bronx County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 1,471,631 Buildings worth $153 billion Area 58 sq mi Risk rank in New York 4 of 62 FIPS 36005
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.6 | $39 million | about 11 a year | 153 |
| Cold wave | Very High | 99.6 | $31 million | about once every 1.8 years | 8.7 |
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.3 | $6.2 million | about 5.4 a year | 205 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.3 | $1.1 million | about 11 a year | 165 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 98.5 | $100 million | about 2 a year | 57 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.7 | $14 million | about once every 532 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 95.3 | $13 million | about once every 6.5 years | 32 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.7 | $999,086 | about 31 a year | 174,806 strikes |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 88.0 | $828,796 | about 1.9 a year | 97 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 86.9 | $384,914 | about once every 1.3 years | 50 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 85.6 | $2.3 million | about 6 a year | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 85.2 | $2.9 million | about once every 56 years | 1 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 44.4 | $500 | about once every 70 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 2.4 | $498 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about once every 1.2 years | 28 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 18
Most common: Hurricane 8, Snowstorm 3, Severe Storm 2, Other 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Snowstorm ×2 |
| 2000s | 6 | Other ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm, Snowstorm, Fire |
| 2010s | 5 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Hurricane ×3 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Bronx County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Henri (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 1
| Tornadoes touching the county | 1 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (1) |
| Deadliest | 25 Jul 2010, EF1, 0.9 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured |
| Longest path | 25 Jul 2010, EF1, 0.9 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured |
| Most recent | 25 Jul 2010, EF1, 0.9 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 7 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Bronx County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronx County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 98.3 | Heat wave |
| New York County | 12 km | Relatively High | 98.8 | Heat wave |
| Queens County | 17 km | Relatively High | 99.2 | Cold wave |
| Bergen County, NJ | 21 km | Relatively High | 97.8 | Coastal flooding |
| Hudson County, NJ | 22 km | Relatively High | 97.2 | Heat wave |
| Kings County | 24 km | Relatively High | 99.3 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 99.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 6.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.89 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $212 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bronx County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bronx County
What natural disasters is Bronx County, New York most at risk from?
Bronx County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.3 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with heat waves, cold waves and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $212 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bronx County had?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Bronx County since 1971, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bronx County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 1 tornado touching Bronx County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 25 Jul 2010, EF1, 0.9 mi path, 0 killed, 7 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.