New York County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
New York County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.8 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with heat waves, strong winds and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $307 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included New York County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching New York County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for New York All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 1,693,650 Buildings worth $292 billion Area 34 sq mi Risk rank in New York 3 of 62 FIPS 36061
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.6 | $41 million | about 1 a year | 146 |
| Strong wind | Very High | 99.5 | $7.7 million | about 5.4 a year | 205 |
| Inland flooding | Very High | 99.2 | $187 million | about 2 a year | 56 |
| Winter weather | Very High | 99.0 | $1.2 million | about 9.3 a year | 154 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 98.7 | $18 million | about once every 2.0 years | 8.3 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.9 | $20 million | about once every 515 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 96.8 | $23 million | about once every 6.5 years | 30 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.0 | $1.1 million | about 32 a year | 129,420 strikes |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.7 | $1.6 million | about 1.9 a year | 91 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | $4.4 million | about once every 94 years | 0 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 88.8 | $527,754 | about once every 1.3 years | 50 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Moderate | 77.8 | $1.2 million | about 3.8 a year | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26.9 | $148 | about once every 147 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 9.9 | $2,007 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 1.5 a year | 70 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 21
Most common: Hurricane 8, Snowstorm 3, Flood 3, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Drought |
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm, Human Cause, Flood |
| 2000s | 6 | Other ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm, Snowstorm, Fire |
| 2010s | 4 | Hurricane ×4 |
| 2020s | 3 | Hurricane ×3 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included New York County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Henri (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched New York County between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How New York County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 98.8 | Heat wave |
| Hudson County, NJ | 10 km | Relatively High | 97.2 | Heat wave |
| Bronx County | 12 km | Relatively High | 98.3 | Cold wave |
| Queens County | 15 km | Relatively High | 99.2 | Cold wave |
| Kings County | 15 km | Relatively High | 99.3 | Winter weather |
| Bergen County, NJ | 22 km | Relatively High | 97.8 | Coastal flooding |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 96.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 67.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.62 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $307 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for New York County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about New York County
What natural disasters is New York County, New York most at risk from?
New York County, New York has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.8 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with heat waves, strong winds and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $307 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has New York County had?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included New York County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit New York County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching New York County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.