Orange County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Orange County, New York has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 90.6 out of 100, higher than about 90% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $99 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 34 federal disaster declarations that included Orange County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5547-NY (Jennings Creek Fire, declared 15 November 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Orange County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 401,096 Buildings worth $81 billion Area 847 sq mi Risk rank in New York 12 of 62 FIPS 36071
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | $3.6 million | about 4.6 a year | 176 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 93.7 | $638,861 | about 15 a year | 278 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 93.4 | $63 million | about 2.8 a year | 77 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92.5 | $89,032 | about once a year | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 90.8 | $9.8 million | about once every 14 years | 26 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 89.7 | $7.5 million | about 1.3 a year | 25 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.9 | $1.2 million | about 3 a year | 248,722 strikes |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | $3.9 million | about once every 606 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | $2.7 million | about 5.7 a year | 92 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | $4.8 million | about once every 3.8 years | 12 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | $356,202 | about once every 1.2 years | 56 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | $709,966 | about 1.3 a year | 63 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 51.2 | $56,265 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.1 | $618 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 47.6 | $72,678 | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 35.9 | $168,311 | about 2.4 a year | 92 |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 34
Most common: Severe Storm 10, Hurricane 10, Snowstorm 4, Flood 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Drought |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 6 | Hurricane ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Fire, Flood |
| 2000s | 13 | Severe Storm ×7, Other ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane, Fire |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 5 | Hurricane ×3, Fire, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Orange County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Henri (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 13
| Tornadoes touching the county | 13 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (5) |
| Deadliest | 16 Nov 1989, F1, 9.1 mi path, 9 killed, 18 injured |
| Longest path | 16 Nov 1989, F1, 9.1 mi path, 9 killed, 18 injured |
| Most recent | 27 Aug 2020, EF1, 2.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 10 / 19 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Orange County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | Strong wind |
| Rockland County | 36 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.4 | Strong wind |
| Passaic County, NJ | 41 km | Relatively High | 95.8 | Strong wind |
| Sussex County, NJ | 43 km | Relatively Low | 77.4 | Strong wind |
| Putnam County | 46 km | Very Low | 39.8 | Landslide |
| Sullivan County | 52 km | Relatively Low | 78.3 | Inland flooding |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 26.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 63.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.94 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $99 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Orange County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Orange County
What natural disasters is Orange County, New York most at risk from?
Orange County, New York has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 90.6 out of 100, higher than about 90% of US counties, with strong winds, winter storms and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $99 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Orange County had?
OpenFEMA lists 34 federal disaster declarations that included Orange County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5547-NY (Jennings Creek Fire, declared 15 November 2024). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Orange County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Orange County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 16 Nov 1989, F1, 9.1 mi path, 9 killed, 18 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.