Sullivan County, New York: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Sullivan County, New York has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.3 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, hurricanes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Sullivan County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Sullivan County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 78,496 Buildings worth $28 billion Area 1,007 sq mi Risk rank in New York 24 of 62 FIPS 36105
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.6 | $27 million | about 1.9 a year | 53 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.2 | $1.6 million | about once every 24 years | 16 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | $3.1 million | about 4.4 a year | 83 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 77.0 | $10,498 | about once every 1.1 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.3 | $564,179 | about 3 a year | 126,682 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 71.3 | $2.5 million | about once every 3.4 years | 11 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 68.3 | $674,801 | about once every 769 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 64.9 | $781,366 | about 2.8 a year | 108 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.0 | $97,566 | about 18 a year | 348 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 53.3 | $91,862 | about once every 1.7 years | 39 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 40.8 | $222,454 | about 2.2 a year | 36 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 36.0 | $160 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 35.2 | $137,506 | about 2.4 a year | 90 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 29.5 | $12,776 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.1 | $9,478 | about once every 2.0 years | 49 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 33
Most common: Severe Storm 12, Hurricane 8, Snowstorm 5, Flood 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Drought |
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 16 | Severe Storm ×10, Other ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane, Fire |
| 2010s | 6 | Hurricane ×4, Snowstorm, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Hurricane ×3 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Sullivan County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3351-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3262-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
- Severe Storms and Flooding (2004, DR-1534-NY): 62 New York counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Henri (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New York also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 11
| Tornadoes touching the county | 11 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (3) |
| Deadliest | 9 May 1961, F2, 6.8 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured |
| Longest path | 25 Sep 2025, EF0, 16 mi path |
| Most recent | 25 Sep 2025, EF0, 16 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 9 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Sullivan County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 78.3 | Inland flooding |
| Wayne County, PA | 45 km | Relatively Low | 56.3 | Hurricane |
| Ulster County | 46 km | Relatively Moderate | 87.7 | Landslide |
| Pike County, PA | 48 km | Relatively Low | 65.9 | Inland flooding |
| Orange County | 52 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | Strong wind |
| Delaware County | 56 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.3 | Inland flooding |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New York, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 48.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 56.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.12 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $37 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Sullivan County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New York · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Sullivan County
What natural disasters is Sullivan County, New York most at risk from?
Sullivan County, New York has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 78.3 out of 100, higher than about 78% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, hurricanes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Sullivan County had?
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Sullivan County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4615-NY (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 5 September 2021). Another 7 New York declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Sullivan County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Sullivan County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 9 May 1961, F2, 6.8 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.