Shelby County, Tennessee: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Shelby County, Tennessee has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 99.4 out of 100, higher than about 99% of US counties, with tornadoes, cold waves and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $555 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Shelby County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 53 tornadoes touching Shelby County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Tennessee All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 929,552 Buildings worth $201 billion Area 788 sq mi Risk rank in Tennessee 1 of 95 FIPS 47157
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Very High | 99.8 | $70 million | about once every 2.0 years | 36 |
| Cold wave | Very High | 99.8 | $62 million | about 1.7 a year | 32 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.6 | $49 million | about 22 a year | 353 |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.5 | $215 million | about once every 110 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 98.7 | $154 million | about 5.2 a year | 145 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.2 | $1.7 million | about 6 a year | 885,781 strikes |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92.6 | $62,987 | about once every 1.2 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 91.2 | $818,435 | about 1.1 a year | 75 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 88.7 | $289,893 | about 5.3 a year | 100 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 87.7 | $1.4 million | about 1.3 a year | 50 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 71.1 | $145,014 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 67.1 | $349,654 | about once every 42 years | 8 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 37.0 | $39,451 | about 9.3 a year | 336 |
| Hail | Very Low | 12.8 | $32,923 | about 3.1 a year | 117 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 26
Most common: Severe Storm 17, Winter Storm 3, Severe Ice Storm 2, Flood 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Tornado |
| 2000s | 6 | Severe Storm ×5, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 7 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm, Flood |
| 2020s | 9 | Severe Storm ×5, Winter Storm ×3, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Shelby County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, DR-4898-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3635-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3625-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Tennessee also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 53
| Tornadoes touching the county | 53 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×5 |
| Peak month | April (12) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1968, F3, 28.8 mi path, 4 killed, 32 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Apr 1968, F3, 28.8 mi path, 4 killed, 32 injured |
| Most recent | 21 Oct 2019, EF1, 7.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 7 / 112 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Shelby County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 99.4 | Tornado |
| DeSoto County, MS | 35 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.0 | Tornado |
| Tipton County | 37 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.0 | Earthquake |
| Crittenden County, AR | 38 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.0 | Earthquake |
| Fayette County | 44 km | Relatively Low | 76.0 | Earthquake |
| Marshall County, MS | 59 km | Relatively Low | 71.2 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Tennessee, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 72.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 57.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.34 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $555 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Shelby County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Tennessee · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Shelby County
What natural disasters is Shelby County, Tennessee most at risk from?
Shelby County, Tennessee has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 99.4 out of 100, higher than about 99% of US counties, with tornadoes, cold waves and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $555 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Shelby County had?
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Shelby County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). Another 1 Tennessee declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Shelby County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 53 tornadoes touching Shelby County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1968, F3, 28.8 mi path, 4 killed, 32 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.