Atascosa County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Atascosa County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 60.7 out of 100, higher than about 60% of US counties, with drought, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $14 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Atascosa County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3649-TX (Flooding, declared 18 July 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Atascosa County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 48,813 Buildings worth $8.8 billion Area 1,234 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 106 of 254 FIPS 48013
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 92.3 | $1.3 million | about 82 a year | 3,024 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 87.7 | $933,572 | about 2.1 a year | 80 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.0 | $2.8 million | about once every 2.7 years | 6 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.5 | $994,794 | about 11 a year | 186 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | $459,894 | about 43 a year | 82,421 strikes |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 74.8 | $166,113 | about once every 366 years | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 66.8 | $277,550 | about once every 17 years | 22 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 61.0 | $6.0 million | about 2.6 a year | 72 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 55.6 | $49,911 | about 1.6 a year | 31 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 51.4 | $369,175 | about once every 1.3 years | 29 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 46.7 | $534,969 | about once every 2.4 years | 8 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 36.4 | $28,396 | about once every 6.4 years | 11 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 18.4 | $15,295 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 8.4 | $13 | about once every 9.2 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Hurricane 6, Severe Storm 4, Flood 3, Fire 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 3 | Flood, Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 9 | Hurricane ×4, Fire ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Flood |
| 2010s | 2 | Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 4 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Atascosa County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Storm Alex (2010), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Claudette (2003), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Hurricane Beulah (1967).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 17
| Tornadoes touching the county | 17 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (4) |
| Deadliest | 6 May 1972, F1, 13.1 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 6 May 1972, F1, 13.1 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Most recent | 3 Jun 2003, F0, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 1 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Atascosa County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atascosa County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 60.7 | Drought |
| Wilson County | 53 km | Relatively Low | 75.5 | Hail |
| Frio County | 57 km | Relatively Low | 55.9 | Drought |
| McMullen County | 60 km | Very Low | 0.6 | Hurricane |
| Bexar County | 62 km | Relatively High | 99.4 | Hail |
| Karnes County | 65 km | Relatively Low | 58.4 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 89.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 14.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.63 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $14 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Atascosa County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Atascosa County
What natural disasters is Atascosa County, Texas most at risk from?
Atascosa County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 60.7 out of 100, higher than about 60% of US counties, with drought, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $14 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Atascosa County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Atascosa County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3649-TX (Flooding, declared 18 July 2026). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Atascosa County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Atascosa County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 May 1972, F1, 13.1 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.