McMullen County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
McMullen County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 0.6 out of 100, among the lowest of all US counties, with hurricanes, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $875,329 a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included McMullen County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4935-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching McMullen County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 600 Buildings worth $567 million Area 1,169 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 251 of 254 FIPS 48311
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Very Low | 54.6 | $116,117 | about once every 14 years | 24 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 38.2 | $56,262 | about 8 a year | 2,016 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 27.8 | $12,336 | about once every 476 years | — |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 16.3 | $168,456 | about 1.9 a year | 36 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 12.0 | $6,495 | about once every 6.2 years | 11 |
| Hail | Very Low | 11.4 | $36,311 | about 1.4 a year | 53 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 9.8 | $17,015 | about 8.6 a year | 157 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.5 | $48,999 | about once every 3.1 years | 2 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 3.4 | $4 | about once every 9.7 years | — |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 2.5 | $12,217 | about once every 1.6 years | 25 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 2.2 | $395,837 | about once every 1.1 years | 25 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 1.5 | $424 | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.1 | $1,029 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 0.9 | $3,827 | about 41 a year | 20,742 strikes |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 15
Most common: Hurricane 7, Flood 2, Severe Ice Storm 2, Fire 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Fire ×2, Flood |
| 2010s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 2020s | 4 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included McMullen County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Hanna (2020), Tropical Storm Alex (2010), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Claudette (2003), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Hurricane Beulah (1967).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 6
| Tornadoes touching the county | 6 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | October (3) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 10 May 1959, F2, 13.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 30 Apr 2007, EF0, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How McMullen County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McMullen County (this page) | — | Very Low | 0.6 | Hurricane |
| Live Oak County | 43 km | Very Low | 33.7 | Cold wave |
| La Salle County | 52 km | Very Low | 22.6 | Cold wave |
| Atascosa County | 60 km | Relatively Low | 60.7 | Drought |
| Duval County | 75 km | Relatively Low | 54.4 | Cold wave |
| Frio County | 78 km | Relatively Low | 55.9 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 36.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 9.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.05 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $875,329 |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for McMullen County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about McMullen County
What natural disasters is McMullen County, Texas most at risk from?
McMullen County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 0.6 out of 100, among the lowest of all US counties, with hurricanes, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $875,329 a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has McMullen County had?
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included McMullen County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4935-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 1 September 2026). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit McMullen County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching McMullen County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.