Dawson County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Dawson County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 38.7 out of 100, higher than about 38% of US counties, with drought, hail and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Dawson County since 1992, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms, declared 19 February 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornadoes touching Dawson County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 12,428 Buildings worth $3.0 billion Area 911 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 149 of 254 FIPS 48115
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 93.8 | $1.6 million | about 79 a year | 2,044 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | $1.4 million | about 5 a year | 189 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 76.7 | $812,650 | about 2.1 a year | 81 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 74.6 | $1.8 million | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.0 | $48,436 | about once every 388 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 52.1 | $929,241 | about once every 2.1 years | 35 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 40.1 | $31,769 | about 6.7 a year | 128 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 34.3 | $13,747 | about once every 110 years | 0 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 31.8 | $104,537 | about 4.2 a year | 73 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 23.2 | $14,634 | about once every 5.1 years | 14 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 18.8 | $1.6 million | about 1.5 a year | 41 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 17.4 | $15,475 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 14.5 | $34,123 | about 48 a year | 83,453 strikes |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.2 | $1 | about once every 12 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 14
Most common: Fire 4, Hurricane 4, Severe Ice Storm 3, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Fire, Drought |
| 2000s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Fire ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2010s | 2 | Fire, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 2 | Severe Ice Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Dawson County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Alex (2010), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 55
| Tornadoes touching the county | 55 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | May (23) |
| Deadliest | 8 Jun 1965, F2, 19.4 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Jun 1965, F2, 19.4 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Most recent | 29 May 2025, EF1, 6.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 9 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Dawson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson County (this page) | — | Very Low | 38.7 | Drought |
| Borden County | 48 km | Very Low | 5.7 | Drought |
| Martin County | 49 km | Very Low | 20.0 | Drought |
| Lynn County | 50 km | Very Low | 23.0 | Hail |
| Terry County | 60 km | Relatively Low | 52.0 | Hail |
| Gaines County | 64 km | Relatively Low | 57.6 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 82.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 21.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.50 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $8.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Dawson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Dawson County
What natural disasters is Dawson County, Texas most at risk from?
Dawson County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 38.7 out of 100, higher than about 38% of US counties, with drought, hail and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Dawson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Dawson County since 1992, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms, declared 19 February 2021). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Dawson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornadoes touching Dawson County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 8 Jun 1965, F2, 19.4 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.