Jasper County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Jasper County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 61.1 out of 100, higher than about 61% of US counties, with hurricanes, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 30 federal disaster declarations that included Jasper County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl, declared 9 July 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 57 tornadoes touching Jasper County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 32,905 Buildings worth $6.0 billion Area 980 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 103 of 254 FIPS 48241
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 88.7 | $4.2 million | about once every 8.8 years | 42 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 83.0 | $399,558 | about once every 262 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | $544,132 | about 76 a year | 125,870 strikes |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 79.7 | $277,954 | about once every 1.3 years | 53 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 71.4 | $707,707 | about 1.3 a year | 50 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 68.3 | $1.7 million | about once every 1.4 years | 47 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 68.3 | $593,944 | about 11 a year | 193 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 65.3 | $1.2 million | about once a year | 20 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 60.9 | $272,066 | about 2.1 a year | 80 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 55.0 | $5.4 million | about 1.1 a year | 30 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 42.0 | $56,785 | about 26 a year | 924 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 39.9 | $457 | about once every 5.1 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 39.4 | $31,175 | about 1.6 a year | 30 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 33.7 | $71,015 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Coastal flooding | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about once every 100 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 30
Most common: Hurricane 10, Flood 6, Fire 6, Severe Storm 5.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 4 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 10 | Hurricane ×6, Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 7 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Fire ×2, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 6 | Hurricane ×3, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Jasper County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Beryl (2024), Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Allison (2001), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Tropical Storm Allison (1989).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 57
| Tornadoes touching the county | 57 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | May (15) |
| Deadliest | 2 Jan 1999, F2, 4.5 mi path, 1 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 29 Jan 1999, F2, 17 mi path |
| Most recent | 8 Jul 2024, EF2, 8.6 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 24 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 17 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Jasper County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 61.1 | Hurricane |
| Newton County | 27 km | Very Low | 27.2 | Hurricane |
| Tyler County | 34 km | Relatively Low | 61.0 | Hurricane |
| Hardin County | 58 km | Relatively Low | 69.6 | Lightning |
| Beauregard Parish, LA | 66 km | Relatively Low | 55.6 | Lightning |
| Sabine County | 69 km | Very Low | 22.1 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 81.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 19.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.49 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $15 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Jasper County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Jasper County
What natural disasters is Jasper County, Texas most at risk from?
Jasper County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 61.1 out of 100, higher than about 61% of US counties, with hurricanes, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Jasper County had?
OpenFEMA lists 30 federal disaster declarations that included Jasper County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl, declared 9 July 2024). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Jasper County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 57 tornadoes touching Jasper County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 2 Jan 1999, F2, 4.5 mi path, 1 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.