Jefferson County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Jefferson County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.7 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $141 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 29 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl, declared 9 July 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 110 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 256,386 Buildings worth $43 billion Area 1,124 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 13 of 254 FIPS 48245
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Very High | 99.7 | $5.9 million | about 79 a year | 671,825 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 98.5 | $21 million | about once every 1.3 years | 54 |
| Hurricane | Very High | 98.2 | $61 million | about once every 5.9 years | 76 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 96.6 | $11 million | about once every 1.1 years | 18 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 94.3 | $1.1 million | about once every 1.9 years | 33 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | $2.9 million | about 1 a year | 173 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | $1.5 million | about once every 123 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.3 | $32 million | about 3.1 a year | 87 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | $997,284 | about 2 a year | 721 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 84.1 | $1.1 million | about once every 1.3 years | 26 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | $1.5 million | about 3.9 a year | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 71.7 | $99,843 | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 66.3 | $465,788 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 65.7 | $333,796 | about 1.5 a year | 56 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 25.4 | $142 | about once every 12 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 29
Most common: Hurricane 10, Flood 7, Severe Storm 5, Fire 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 5 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Fire |
| 2000s | 10 | Hurricane ×6, Fire, Other, Severe Storm, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Flood, Hurricane, Fire |
| 2020s | 5 | Hurricane ×3, Severe Ice Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Jefferson County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Beryl (2024), Hurricane Laura (2020), Tropical Storm Imelda (2019), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Allison (2001), Hurricane Georges (1998), Tropical Storm Charley (1998), Tropical Storm Allison (1989), Tropical Storm Danielle (1980).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 110
| Tornadoes touching the county | 110 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×7 |
| Peak month | July (16) |
| Deadliest | 7 Nov 1957, F3, 3.6 mi path, 2 killed, 59 injured |
| Longest path | 28 Oct 1974, F2, 20.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 10 Apr 2024, EF2, 2.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 4 / 142 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 47 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 16 | 41 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Jefferson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 95.7 | Lightning |
| Orange County | 37 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.9 | Lightning |
| Chambers County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 51.8 | Hurricane |
| Hardin County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 69.6 | Lightning |
| Liberty County | 69 km | Relatively Low | 79.5 | Lightning |
| Calcasieu Parish, LA | 86 km | Relatively High | 95.7 | Lightning |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 64.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.46 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $141 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Jefferson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Texas
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Jefferson County
What natural disasters is Jefferson County, Texas most at risk from?
Jefferson County, Texas has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.7 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $141 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Jefferson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 29 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl, declared 9 July 2024). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Jefferson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 110 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 7 Nov 1957, F3, 3.6 mi path, 2 killed, 59 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.