Mitchell County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Mitchell County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 19.8 out of 100, higher than about 19% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Mitchell County since 1993, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms, declared 19 February 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 54 tornadoes touching Mitchell County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 8,970 Buildings worth $2.9 billion Area 925 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 194 of 254 FIPS 48335
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 87.7 | $1.1 million | about 63 a year | 1,652 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 84.0 | $507,954 | about once every 158 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 76.7 | $595,066 | about 4.7 a year | 177 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 69.9 | $776,641 | about 1.8 a year | 70 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 54.5 | $59,674 | about 6 a year | 113 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 35.4 | $547,181 | about once every 1.9 years | 38 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 31.0 | $113,917 | about 6.7 a year | 108 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 23.9 | $6,761 | about once every 174 years | 2 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 21.3 | $199,535 | about once every 1.7 years | 11 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 20.6 | $56,661 | about 49 a year | 59,775 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 18.2 | $1.8 million | about 1.6 a year | 46 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 14.7 | $7,358 | about once every 4.9 years | 14 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 11.5 | $9,364 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 5.4 | $7 | about once every 9.5 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 12
Most common: Fire 5, Hurricane 3, Severe Ice Storm 2, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 3 | Fire, Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 5 | Hurricane ×3, Fire ×2 |
| 2010s | 2 | Fire ×2 |
| 2020s | 2 | Severe Ice Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Mitchell County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 54
| Tornadoes touching the county | 54 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (21) |
| Deadliest | 11 Jun 2004, F2, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 3 injured |
| Longest path | 27 May 1982, F2, 23 mi path |
| Most recent | 28 Mar 2017, EF0, 4.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 5 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Mitchell County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell County (this page) | — | Very Low | 19.8 | Drought |
| Howard County | 48 km | Relatively Low | 54.8 | Hail |
| Nolan County | 48 km | Very Low | 37.8 | Drought |
| Scurry County | 49 km | Very Low | 30.0 | Drought |
| Sterling County | 55 km | Very Low | 1.1 | Drought |
| Coke County | 59 km | Very Low | 3.7 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 66.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 22.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.31 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $5.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Mitchell County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Mitchell County
What natural disasters is Mitchell County, Texas most at risk from?
Mitchell County, Texas has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 19.8 out of 100, higher than about 19% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Mitchell County had?
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Mitchell County since 1993, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms, declared 19 February 2021). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Mitchell County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 54 tornadoes touching Mitchell County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Jun 2004, F2, 10.3 mi path, 0 killed, 3 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.