Dane County, Wisconsin: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Dane County, Wisconsin has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.9 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with cold waves, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $182 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 17 federal disaster declarations that included Dane County since 1976, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4402-WI (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 18 October 2018). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 78 tornadoes touching Dane County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Wisconsin All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 561,270 Buildings worth $151 billion Area 1,250 sq mi Risk rank in Wisconsin 2 of 72 FIPS 55025
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Very High | 99.0 | $44 million | about 5.7 a year | 109 |
| Hail | Relatively High | 98.9 | $13 million | about 3.8 a year | 144 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.6 | $26 million | about once every 1.1 years | 66 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.3 | $8.1 million | about 3.5 a year | 53 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 94.3 | $84 million | about 2.1 a year | 58 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 93.6 | $710,380 | about 16 a year | 306 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 92.5 | $3.0 million | about 4.4 a year | 165 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.4 | $1.5 million | about 37 a year | 446,672 strikes |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | $67,009 | about once every 2.2 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 83.4 | $680,059 | about once every 1.6 years | 42 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.7 | $1.0 million | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 60.2 | $105,320 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 39.9 | $80,819 | about 3.4 a year | 182 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 29.2 | $16,577 | about once every 129 years | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 17
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Snowstorm 3, Flood 2, Tornado 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Severe Storm, Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Tornado |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×4, Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Dane County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3249-WI): 72 Wisconsin counties designated.
- Drought (1976, EM-3014-WI): 66 Wisconsin counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-994-WI): 47 Wisconsin counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Wisconsin also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 78
| Tornadoes touching the county | 78 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×5 |
| Peak month | June (29) |
| Deadliest | 2 Aug 1967, F3, 0.1 mi path, 2 killed, 5 injured |
| Longest path | 27 Mar 1991, F2, 32 mi path, 1 killed, 5 injured |
| Most recent | 16 Jul 2025, EF0, 5.6 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 4 / 109 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 28 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Dane County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 93.9 | Cold wave |
| Columbia County | 45 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.4 | Hail |
| Green County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 46.4 | Hail |
| Rock County | 52 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.4 | Hail |
| Jefferson County | 52 km | Relatively Low | 75.8 | Hail |
| Sauk County | 59 km | Relatively Low | 72.1 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Wisconsin, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 15.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 97.8 |
| Community risk factor | 0.84 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $182 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Dane County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Wisconsin · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Wisconsin
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Dane County
What natural disasters is Dane County, Wisconsin most at risk from?
Dane County, Wisconsin has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.9 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with cold waves, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $182 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Dane County had?
OpenFEMA lists 17 federal disaster declarations that included Dane County since 1976, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4402-WI (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides, declared 18 October 2018). Another 1 Wisconsin declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Dane County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 78 tornadoes touching Dane County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 2 Aug 1967, F3, 0.1 mi path, 2 killed, 5 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.