Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.5 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with landslides, earthquakes and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $101 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Fairbanks North Star Borough since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5597-AK (Nenana Ridge Complex, declared 6 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Fairbanks North Star Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Alaska All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 95,579 Buildings worth $27 billion Area 7,510 sq mi Risk rank in Alaska 4 of 30 FIPS 02090
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.4 | $2.9 million | about 11 a year | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.6 | $55 million | about once every 13 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.6 | $13 million | about once every 93 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very High | 97.5 | $1.5 million | about 17 a year | 323 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 96.5 | $20 million | about 3.4 a year | 64 |
| Avalanche | Relatively Moderate | 79.2 | $456,667 | about once every 30 years | 1 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 60.0 | $452,185 | about 39 a year | 170,952 strikes |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 53.4 | $23 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 45.7 | $7.9 million | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 35.8 | $59,088 | about once every 75 years | 1 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 1.3 | $4,983 | about once every 658 years | 1 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.2 | $1,419 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.7 | $2 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Heat wave | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 14
Most common: Fire 6, Severe Storm 4, Earthquake 1, Flood 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Freezing |
| 1990s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Fire, Earthquake, Flood |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 4 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Fairbanks North Star Borough
- Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches (2000, DR-1316-AK): 15 Alaska counties designated.
- Severe Freezing (1989, DR-826-AK): 11 Alaska counties designated.
- Earthquake (2002, DR-1440-AK): 7 Alaska counties designated.
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Alaska also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Fairbanks North Star Borough between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Fairbanks North Star Borough compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star Borough (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | Landslide |
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 190 km | Relatively Low | 57.0 | Wildfire |
| Denali Borough | 208 km | Very Low | 28.3 | Avalanche |
| Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | 234 km | Relatively Low | 61.5 | Cold wave |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 313 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | Avalanche |
| Copper River Census Area | 348 km | Very Low | 39.9 | Avalanche |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Alaska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 26.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.77 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $101 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Fairbanks North Star Borough's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Alaska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Fairbanks North Star Borough
What natural disasters is Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska most at risk from?
Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.5 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with landslides, earthquakes and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $101 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Fairbanks North Star Borough had?
OpenFEMA lists 14 federal disaster declarations that included Fairbanks North Star Borough since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5597-AK (Nenana Ridge Complex, declared 6 July 2025). Another 24 Alaska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Fairbanks North Star Borough?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Fairbanks North Star Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.