Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 57.0 out of 100, higher than about 57% of US counties, with wildfires, avalanches and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 11 federal disaster declarations that included Southeast Fairbanks Census Area since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5672-AK (Mukluk Fire, declared 18 August 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Southeast Fairbanks Census Area from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 6,763 Buildings worth $2.4 billion Area 25,374 sq mi Risk rank in Alaska 9 of 30 FIPS 02240
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.1 | $4.9 million | about once every 117 years | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 94.4 | $1.9 million | about once every 15 years | 2 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.5 | $2.0 million | about once every 21 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 86.5 | $23,249 | about 28 a year | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.5 | $2.4 million | about 4.9 a year | 95 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.9 | $77,395 | about 16 a year | 308 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 42.3 | $4 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 3 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.0 | $25,678 | about 43 a year | 64,439 strikes |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 11.9 | $4,048 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 9.4 | $793,436 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.0 | $306 | about once every 971 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 0.9 | $121 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.8 | $1 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Heat wave | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 11
Most common: Flood 4, Severe Storm 3, Fire 2, Earthquake 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Freezing |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood, Fire, Earthquake |
| 2010s | 2 | Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Flood ×2, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
- Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches (2000, DR-1316-AK): 15 Alaska counties designated.
- Severe Freezing (1989, DR-826-AK): 11 Alaska counties designated.
- Earthquake (2002, DR-1440-AK): 7 Alaska counties designated.
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Alaska also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Southeast Fairbanks Census Area between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Southeast Fairbanks Census Area compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 57.0 | Wildfire |
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | 190 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | Landslide |
| Copper River Census Area | 226 km | Very Low | 39.9 | Avalanche |
| Denali Borough | 334 km | Very Low | 28.3 | Avalanche |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 364 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | Avalanche |
| Chugach Census Area | 375 km | Very Low | 19.6 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Alaska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 88.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 5.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.67 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $12 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Alaska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
What natural disasters is Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska most at risk from?
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 57.0 out of 100, higher than about 57% of US counties, with wildfires, avalanches and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Southeast Fairbanks Census Area had?
OpenFEMA lists 11 federal disaster declarations that included Southeast Fairbanks Census Area since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5672-AK (Mukluk Fire, declared 18 August 2026). Another 24 Alaska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Southeast Fairbanks Census Area from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.