Caldwell County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Caldwell County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.8 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, hail and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $33 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 26 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 45,866 Buildings worth $6.7 billion Area 552 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 53 of 254 FIPS 48055
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.1 | $24 million | about 2.6 a year | 74 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | $1.1 million | about 3.3 a year | 124 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 85.7 | $1.0 million | about 69 a year | 2,233 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 85.0 | $1.3 million | about 1.4 a year | 54 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | $3.6 million | about once every 3.6 years | 20 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 74.1 | $881,717 | about 11 a year | 176 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 68.0 | $119,751 | about once every 840 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 67.3 | $94,043 | about 3.1 a year | 58 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 63.8 | $310,562 | about 51 a year | 83,394 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 60.2 | $171,804 | about once every 20 years | 14 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 54.8 | $897,988 | about once every 1.6 years | 12 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 41.4 | $44,884 | about once every 1.7 years | 39 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 19.2 | $20,952 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.9 | $48 | about once every 14 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Fire 6, Flood 5, Hurricane 4, Severe Storm 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 4 | Fire, Flood, Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 8 | Fire ×4, Hurricane ×3, Flood |
| 2010s | 6 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane, Flood, Fire |
| 2020s | 3 | Severe Ice Storm ×2, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Caldwell County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 26
| Tornadoes touching the county | 26 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×8 |
| Peak month | August (5) |
| Deadliest | 10 Aug 1980, F2, 47.7 mi path, 0 killed, 20 injured |
| Longest path | 10 Aug 1980, F2, 47.7 mi path, 0 killed, 20 injured |
| Most recent | 26 Oct 2023, EF0, 0.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 23 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Caldwell County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 79.8 | Inland flooding |
| Bastrop County | 42 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.2 | Tornado |
| Guadalupe County | 42 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.5 | Inland flooding |
| Gonzales County | 44 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.7 | Hail |
| Hays County | 47 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | Hail |
| Travis County | 57 km | Relatively High | 97.7 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 64.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 9.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.31 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $33 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Caldwell County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Drought: Drought monitor for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Caldwell County
What natural disasters is Caldwell County, Texas most at risk from?
Caldwell County, Texas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.8 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, hail and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $33 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Caldwell County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 17 May 2024). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Caldwell County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 26 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Aug 1980, F2, 47.7 mi path, 0 killed, 20 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.