Guadalupe County, Texas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Guadalupe County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.5 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, tornadoes and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $124 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Guadalupe County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4879-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared 6 July 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 26 tornadoes touching Guadalupe County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Texas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 172,522 Buildings worth $29 billion Area 722 sq mi Risk rank in Texas 19 of 254 FIPS 48187
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 95.6 | $100 million | about 2.9 a year | 81 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.2 | $10 million | about once every 3.2 years | 17 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | $2.5 million | about 3 a year | 115 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.9 | $1.4 million | about 49 a year | 147,024 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | $3.4 million | about 11 a year | 174 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.6 | $318,057 | about 2.6 a year | 49 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | $1.0 million | about 75 a year | 2,751 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 75.0 | $310,132 | about once every 833 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 71.2 | $2.6 million | about once every 1.9 years | 10 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 66.7 | $508,516 | about once every 18 years | 18 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 61.3 | $901,421 | about 1.2 a year | 47 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 50.7 | $103,903 | about once every 3.3 years | 21 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26.0 | $257 | about once every 13 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 20.6 | $35,744 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 21
Most common: Flood 6, Hurricane 5, Severe Storm 4, Fire 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Flood ×2, Fire, Severe Storm, Drought |
| 2000s | 7 | Hurricane ×3, Fire ×2, Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2010s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 4 | Flood ×2, Severe Ice Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Guadalupe County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4586-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3554-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
- Extreme Wildfire Threat (2006, DR-1624-TX): 254 Texas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Harvey (2017), Tropical Storm Alex (2010), Hurricane Rita (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Charley (1998).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Texas also had 101 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 26
| Tornadoes touching the county | 26 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (5) |
| Deadliest | 1 Dec 1953, F3, 5.1 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 30 Oct 2015, EF2, 8.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 26 Oct 2023, EF0, 2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 11 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Guadalupe County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalupe County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 91.5 | Inland flooding |
| Comal County | 41 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | Inland flooding |
| Caldwell County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 79.8 | Inland flooding |
| Gonzales County | 46 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.7 | Hail |
| Wilson County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 75.5 | Hail |
| Hays County | 53 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Texas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 18.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 50.8 |
| Community risk factor | 0.88 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $124 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Guadalupe County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Texas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Hail: Weather alerts for Texas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Guadalupe County
What natural disasters is Guadalupe County, Texas most at risk from?
Guadalupe County, Texas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.5 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, tornadoes and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $124 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Guadalupe County had?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Guadalupe County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4879-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared 6 July 2025). Another 101 Texas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Guadalupe County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 26 tornadoes touching Guadalupe County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 1 Dec 1953, F3, 5.1 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.