Ebola is trending worldwide today, and the numbers explain why. At least 9,552 people have caught the disease and 4,602 have died in the Democratic Republic of Congo's Bundibugyo virus outbreak, according to the latest European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control figures, with data to 18 October 2026. It is already the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded in the country — and the second-largest anywhere since Ebola was first identified.

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 17 May 2026, days after the DRC's health ministry announced it. Five months on, transmission is still intense, cases have crossed into Kenya, and there is still no licensed vaccine against this species of the virus. This explainer sets out what the official figures say, what is driving the spread, and what it means beyond the DRC's borders.

How the DRC Ebola outbreak became the largest on record

The DRC's health ministry declared the outbreak on 15 May 2026. The culprit is the Bundibugyo virus, one of the Ebola virus species, first identified in Uganda's Bundibugyo district in 2007. Before 2026 it had caused only two known outbreaks — Uganda in 2007 and the DRC in 2012. This one has grown far beyond both: by mid-October, cases had been confirmed in 66 of 178 health zones across eight provinces.

WHO's 9 October Disease Outbreak News put the count at 8,728 confirmed cases and 4,205 deaths as of 6 October, a crude case fatality ratio of 48.2%, across 64 health zones in seven provinces. The ECDC's 19 October update pushed both figures higher: 9,552 confirmed cases and 4,602 deaths with data to 18 October, with 2,550 patients recovered and 937 hospitalised in isolation.

For scale, the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic (28,616 cases, 11,310 deaths) remains the largest Ebola outbreak globally, but the DRC's 2018–2020 Kivu outbreak — 3,470 cases — was surpassed in the summer of 2026.

Ituri carries the heaviest burden: 6,960 cases and 3,217 deaths across 28 of its 36 health zones, followed by Nord-Kivu (2,084 cases, 1,176 deaths) and Haut-Uélé (415 cases, 177 deaths). The rest are spread across Tshopo, Sud-Kivu, Bas-Uélé, Sud Ubangi and Nord Ubangi; the latest ECDC update added 97 new confirmed cases including 41 deaths, concentrated in Nord-Kivu and Ituri.

Why containment keeps falling short

WHO reassessed the risk on 14 August: very high in the DRC, high in countries sharing land borders with it, and low in the rest of Africa and globally. The official figures show exactly where the response is under strain.

  • Too many deaths outside treatment centres. Around the early-October WHO update, 372 deaths had been reported since the previous bulletin — and 264 of them occurred in communities, versus 108 in treatment centres. WHO says that pattern points to patients reaching care late, or not at all, which keeps transmission alive in households.
  • Contact tracing below target. Roughly three-quarters of identified contacts were under follow-up in mid-October — below the 85% target responders set. Every gap is a potential transmission chain nobody is watching.
  • Health workers hit hard. WHO's 4 October weekly report counted 245 infected health workers, 47 of them dead — a direct measure of how unsafe frontline care has become.
  • Conflict and displacement. The outbreak is concentrated in eastern DRC, where armed conflict and displacement were already straining communities before Ebola arrived. Aid agencies describe a population whose trust in outside responders is fragile — and trust is what contact tracing and safe burials depend on.
  • Stigma. Survivors, families and even medical staff face isolation and stigma. WHO reported that nearly 11,300 people had received mental-health and psychosocial support — a parallel crisis alongside the virus itself.

The vaccine and treatment problem

The fundamental difficulty with this outbreak is biological: there is no licensed vaccine and no proven treatment against the Bundibugyo virus. That separates it from Zaire-ebolavirus outbreaks, where the Ervebo vaccine and antibody treatments are established tools.

What is being tried instead:

  • Off-label Ervebo. The vaccine licensed against Zaire ebolavirus is being given to health and frontline workers under a study protocol — WHO reported 8,497 people vaccinated by 4 October — on the chance of partial protection, while its effectiveness against Bundibugyo is formally evaluated.
  • Experimental Bundibugyo vaccines. Candidate vaccines from Oxford and Moderna are in early trials — the first ever designed specifically against this species.
  • Treatment research. WHO's PARTNERS trial is testing the antibody MBP134 and the antiviral remdesivir. Until results come in, patients receive supportive care — fluids and symptom management — which is also why reaching a treatment centre early matters so much.

What it means beyond the DRC's borders

The outbreak has already crossed borders. On 6 October, Kenya's health ministry reported its first case and death: a Kenyan citizen who had been living in the DRC and travelled back on 3 October. A second case followed on 14 October in a close contact. By 20 October, Kenya had 8 confirmed cases including one death, with the last case reported on 18 October. Uganda, which recorded 20 cases and 2 deaths, has declared its own outbreak over.

WHO has advised the DRC to run exit screening at international airports, seaports and major land crossings for unexplained fever that could be Ebola. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there are no cases in the United States, judges the risk to the US public as low, and has restricted entry for travellers who were in Congo in the previous 21 days.

What our records show, and what they miss

Our records show the official trajectory: WHO Disease Outbreak News bulletins, the DRC's national sitreps, and ECDC's updates together trace how the Bundibugyo outbreak grew from a May declaration into the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded in the country — province by province, health zone by health zone, with recovery and vaccination figures alongside. They also show where the response is under strain: the share of deaths happening in communities rather than treatment centres, and contact follow-up running below target.

What they miss is the true real-time picture. Reported figures lag several days behind events, and they are under continuous review — the ECDC itself notes that DRC case and death data are being harmonised. Deaths outside treatment centres mean some cases never enter the system, and unreported transmission chains are exactly what contact-tracing gaps leave behind. The case counts also carry none of the human weight: the stigma facing survivors and health workers, and the conflict and displacement compounding the crisis in the east. As with any outbreak, the official numbers are a floor, not a ceiling.

The short version

  • At least 9,552 confirmed cases and 4,602 deaths in the DRC's Bundibugyo virus outbreak, per ECDC figures with data to 18 October 2026 — the largest Ebola outbreak in the country's history.
  • WHO declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 17 May 2026; risk remains very high inside the DRC and high in bordering countries.
  • There is no licensed vaccine or proven treatment against Bundibugyo virus — containment depends on isolation, contact tracing, safe burials, and experimental vaccine and treatment studies.
  • Cases have crossed borders: Kenya has 8 confirmed cases including one death (as of 20 October); WHO advises exit screening at DRC airports and land crossings.
  • A persistently high share of deaths in communities, not treatment centres, shows people are reaching care too late — the key metric to watch, not just the headline totals.