White Christmas Odds by US City
Based on NOAA's 1991–2020 climate normals, Anchorage, AK has the best chance of a white Christmas of the 93 US cities listed here: 94% of years have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on 25 December, against 13% in New York City. 5 of the 93 cities are above 50%.
| # | City | 1 inch+ on the ground | 5 inches+ | Snow falls on the day | NOAA station |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anchorage, AK | 94% | 78% | 33% | Anchorage Intl AP · 9 km |
| 2 | Minneapolis, MN | 79% | 41% | 31% | New Hope · 10 km |
| 3 | Saint Paul, MN | 74% | 39% | 28% | Minneapolis/St Paul AP · 13 km |
| 4 | Madison, WI | 60% | 25% | 27% | Madison Dane Rgnl AP · 9 km |
| 5 | Buffalo, NY | 53% | 25% | 43% | Buffalo · 13 km |
| 6 | Milwaukee, WI | 43% | 16% | 25% | Milwaukee Mitchell AP · 9 km |
| 7 | Cleveland, OH | 40% | 12% | 32% | Cleveland · 17 km |
| 8 | Boston, MA | 37% | 17% | 20% | Blue Hill Coop · 17 km |
| 9 | South Boston, MA | 37% | 17% | 20% | Blue Hill Coop · 15 km |
| 10 | Chicago, IL | 35% | 12% | 23% | Chicago Midway AP 3SW · 16 km |
| 11 | Aurora, CO | 34% | 6% | 15% | Denver-Stapleton · 5 km |
| 12 | Denver, CO | 34% | 6% | 15% | Denver-Stapleton · 10 km |
| 13 | Detroit, MI | 33% | 16% | 13% | Grosse Pointe Farms · 15 km |
| 14 | Omaha, NE | 33% | 11% | 16% | Omaha Eppley Airfield · 7 km |
| 15 | Lincoln, NE | 31% | 9% | 14% | Lincoln Muni AP · 9 km |
| 16 | Toledo, OH | 31% | 5% | 23% | Toledo Express AP · 22 km |
| 17 | Fort Wayne, IN | 31% | 10% | 27% | Ft Wayne Intl AP · 19 km |
| 18 | Pittsburgh, PA | 31% | 6% | 28% | Pittsburgh Intl AP · 19 km |
| 19 | Indianapolis, IN | 26% | 9% | 19% | Indianapolis · 13 km |
| 20 | Cincinnati, OH | 23% | 4% | 11% | Cheviot · 10 km |
| 21 | Columbus, OH | 23% | 3% | 21% | Columbus Port Columbus Intl AP · 11 km |
| 22 | Kansas City, MO | 21% | 5% | 9% | Independence · 17 km |
| 23 | Reno, NV | 19% | 4% | 13% | Reno WFO · 5 km |
| 24 | St. Louis, MO | 17% | 5% | 12% | St Louis Lambert Intl AP · 21 km |
| 25 | Colorado Springs, CO | 15% | 1% | 13% | Colorado Springs Muni AP · 12 km |
| 26 | Jersey City, NJ | 14% | 5% | 10% | Newark Intl AP · 9 km |
| 27 | Newark, NJ | 14% | 5% | 10% | Newark Intl AP · 6 km |
| 28 | Staten Island, NY | 14% | 5% | 10% | Newark Intl AP · 14 km |
| 29 | Brooklyn, NY | 13% | 5% | 8% | New York Cntrl Pk Twr · 14 km |
| 30 | Manhattan, NY | 13% | 5% | 8% | New York Cntrl Pk Twr · 1 km |
| 31 | New York City, NY | 13% | 5% | 8% | New York Cntrl Pk Twr · 8 km |
| 32 | The Bronx, NY | 12% | 5% | 10% | New York Laguardia AP · 8 km |
| 33 | Queens, NY | 12% | 5% | 10% | New York JFK Intl AP · 8 km |
| 34 | Wichita, KS | 12% | 1% | 8% | Wichita · 10 km |
| 35 | Philadelphia, PA | 11% | 3% | 6% | Phila Franklin Inst · 1 km |
| 36 | Louisville, KY | 9% | 1% | 10% | Louisville Intl AP · 8 km |
| 37 | Meads, KY | 9% | 2% | 10% | Huntington Tri State AP · 14 km |
| 38 | Lexington, KY | 9% | — | 10% | Lexington Bluegrass AP · 13 km |
| 39 | Lexington-fayette, KY | 9% | — | 10% | Lexington Bluegrass AP · 13 km |
| 40 | Baltimore, MD | 7% | 2% | 6% | Baltimore Wash Intl AP · 15 km |
| 41 | Tulsa, OK | 6% | 1% | 4% | Tulsa Intl AP · 11 km |
| 42 | Oklahoma City, OK | 5% | 1% | 5% | Oklahoma City Will Rogers AP · 12 km |
| 43 | Washington, DC | 4% | 1% | 5% | Washington Reagan AP · 5 km |
| 44 | Greensboro, NC | 4% | 1% | 3% | Piedmont Triad Intl AP · 14 km |
| 45 | Albuquerque, NM | 4% | 1% | 8% | Albuquerque Intl AP · 6 km |
| 46 | Seattle, WA | 3% | 1% | 3% | Seattle Sand Pt WSFO · 11 km |
| 47 | Durham, NC | 2% | — | 2% | Raleigh Durham Intl AP · 15 km |
| 48 | Raleigh, NC | 2% | — | 2% | Raleigh Durham Intl AP · 19 km |
| 49 | West Raleigh, NC | 2% | — | 2% | Raleigh Durham Intl AP · 16 km |
| 50 | Plano, TX | 2% | 0% | 1% | Frisco · 21 km |
| 51 | El Paso, TX | 2% | 0% | 3% | El Paso Intl AP · 12 km |
| 52 | Atlanta, GA | 1% | 0% | 2% | Atlanta Hartsfield Intl AP · 14 km |
| 53 | Charlotte, NC | 1% | 0% | 1% | Charlotte Douglas AP · 10 km |
| 54 | Memphis, TN | 1% | 0% | 2% | Memphis Intl AP · 12 km |
| 55 | New South Memphis, TN | 1% | 0% | 2% | Memphis Intl AP · 7 km |
| 56 | Portland, OR | 1% | 1% | 3% | Portland KGW-TV · 1 km |
| 57 | Arlington, TX | 1% | 0% | 1% | Ft Worth WSFO · 21 km |
| 58 | Fort Worth, TX | 1% | 0% | 1% | Ft Worth WSFO · 12 km |
| 59 | Dallas, TX | 1% | 0% | 1% | Dallas Love Fld · 9 km |
| 60 | Henderson, NV | under 1% | 0% | under 1% | Las Vegas McCarran AP · 17 km |
| 61 | Corpus Christi, TX | under 1% | under 1% | under 1% | Robstown · 26 km |
| 62 | Laredo, TX | under 1% | 0% | under 1% | Laredo 2 · 7 km |
| 63 | San Antonio, TX | under 1% | 0% | under 1% | San Antonio Intl AP · 13 km |
| 64 | Anaheim, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Anaheim · 7 km |
| 65 | Austin, TX | 0% | 0% | under 1% | Austin-Camp Mabry · 6 km |
| 66 | Bakersfield, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Bakersfield AP · 8 km |
| 67 | Chandler, AZ | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tempe ASU · 15 km |
| 68 | Chula Vista, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Chula Vista · 0 km |
| 69 | Fresno, CA | 0% | 0% | under 1% | Fresno Yosemite Intl AP · 6 km |
| 70 | Honolulu, HI | 0% | 0% | 0% | Beretania Pump Stn 705 · 1 km |
| 71 | Houston, TX | 0% | 0% | under 1% | Houston Intercont AP · 24 km |
| 72 | Irvine, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Santa Ana Fire Stn · 9 km |
| 73 | Jacksonville, FL | 0% | 0% | 0% | Jacksonville · 18 km |
| 74 | Las Vegas, NV | 0% | 0% | 0% | N Las Vegas · 7 km |
| 75 | Long Beach, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Torrance AP · 15 km |
| 76 | Los Angeles, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | UCLA · 18 km |
| 77 | Mesa, AZ | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tempe ASU · 9 km |
| 78 | Miami, FL | 0% | 0% | 0% | Miami Beach · 7 km |
| 79 | Nashville, TN | 0% | 0% | 1% | Old Hickory Dam · 18 km |
| 80 | New Orleans, LA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Gretna · 4 km |
| 81 | Oakland, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Oakland Museum · 1 km |
| 82 | Orlando, FL | 0% | 0% | 0% | Orlando Intl AP · 13 km |
| 83 | Phoenix, AZ | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tempe ASU · 14 km |
| 84 | Riverside, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Riverside Fire Stn 3 · 1 km |
| 85 | Sacramento, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Davis 2 WSW Exp Farm · 25 km |
| 86 | San Diego, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Chula Vista · 11 km |
| 87 | San Francisco, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | San Francisco Oceanside · 9 km |
| 88 | San Jose, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | San Jose · 1 km |
| 89 | Santa Ana, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Santa Ana Fire Stn · 0 km |
| 90 | St. Petersburg, FL | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tampa Intl AP · 25 km |
| 91 | Stockton, CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Stockton Fire Stn 4 · 5 km |
| 92 | Tampa, FL | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tampa Intl AP · 8 km |
| 93 | Tucson, AZ | 0% | 0% | 0% | Tucson Intl AP · 10 km |
What this page shows, and what it misses
For each city, the share of Christmases from 1991 to 2020 with at least 1 inch (and at least 5 inches) of snow on the ground, and with at least 0.1 inch of new snow falling that day, at the nearest NOAA station within 30 km that has these normals. NOAA smooths the daily values, so they read as long-run odds.
It misses: this year's weather (see the National Weather Service forecast), places far from a city centre, and hills — snow cover can differ a lot within a few miles, so a suburban or higher station can read higher than downtown. Cities with no suitable station within 30 km are left out.
Travelling at Christmas?
- Check weather alerts by state and airport delays before you set off.
- Winter storm safety from the NWS: weather.gov/safety/winter.
- Keep a blanket, water, charger and a scraper in the car; tell someone your route.
FAQQuestions people ask
Which US city is most likely to have a white Christmas?
Based on NOAA's 1991–2020 climate normals, Anchorage, AK has the best chance of a white Christmas of the 93 US cities listed here: 94% of years have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on 25 December, against 13% in New York City. 5 of the 93 cities are above 50%.
What counts as a white Christmas?
The usual US definition, used by NOAA, is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of 25 December. It does not need to snow on the day itself.
How are these odds worked out?
NOAA's U.S. Climate Normals give, for each weather station, the share of years from 1991 to 2020 with at least 1 inch of snow depth on each day of the year, smoothed. We use the nearest station with that normal within 30 km of each city centre.
Will it be a white Christmas this year?
These are historical odds, not a forecast. From about a week before Christmas, the National Weather Service forecast for your city is the best guide; from 15 December this page links it for every city.
Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (daily normals; Palecki, M., Durre, I., Applequist, S., Arguez, A. & Lawrimore, J., 2021), public domain. Forecast links: National Weather Service (api.weather.gov), public domain. Station matching and ranking are Global Incident Tracker's own; NOAA does not endorse them.